Friday, November 11, 2011

Thinking Out Cloud: Predictions

Thinking Out Cloud predictions.

Predictions with out time-lines are fairly useless. Cars will drive themselves. They will all be electric and many people will own flying cars.
As long as I never put a date on it, of course it will very likely come true in the distant future.

Despite this. Let me address a few things.

  1. PaaS Rules : No IaaS providers keep adding PaaS support and the lines between IaaS and PaaS are fairly blurry. Plus you have all of the not so great PaaS providers, who are not much more than window dressing on AWS, over promising what equates mostly to vaporware. Believe nothing you read in a press release. More on this later. There are real PaaS providers, but there are also a lot of clowns. The market will sort them out. All big IaaS players will offer PaaS features. Not all PaaS providers will survive the next few years.
  2. Public Rules: "Internal clouds will be niche. In the long-run, Internal Clouds (clouds operated in a company's own data centers, aka "private clouds") don't make sense." Again... when is this exactly going to happen? Right now they are a pretty big niche like 80% of the market. Your faith in the pace of change is outstanding. Did you read the 2011 Cloud Computing Outlook per chance? IT shops are not jumping on the public cloud quite yet. There is some trepidation there. Private clouds (on premises and off) and hybrid clouds are going to see a lot more growth than pure public plays. Public does not rule, and it will not rule for a while.

I could disagree about more, but I'll leave it for another day. I find that the Cloud media hounds and speakers are a bit too Cloud bullish. Don't get me wrong. I am an enthusiast. But making blanket "pie in the sky" forecast does not help the movement.

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